Nuggets vs Spurs prediction NBA · Sunday, April 12
At a glance
The San Antonio Spurs (62-20) host the Denver Nuggets (53-28) on Sunday, April 12 at 8:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. Final score: Nuggets 128 – Spurs 118. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Spurs a 62% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Spurs are 32-7 at home and the Nuggets are 25-15 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 9-1 for the Spurs and 10-0 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Spurs W3, Nuggets W11).
The analysis Model
The Spurs are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Spurs 119 – 115 Nuggets, a margin of about 4.0 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.
- The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.1 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DENSA
Top performers
Nuggets
Julian StrawtherG · #125pts / game
Jalen PickettG · #216assists
David RoddyF · #4513reboundsSpurs
De'Aaron FoxG · #424pts / game
Stephon CastleG · #59assistsStephon CastleG · #511reboundsRecent form
DENSAHead-to-head
DEN lead 3-1 this season.
SA
Team comparison
| DEN | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| 53-28 | Record | 62-20 |
| 121.8 | Points scored / game | 119.0 |
| 116.9 | Points allowed / game | 112.1 |
| +4.2 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.8 |
| W11 | Current streak | W3 |
| 10-0 | Last 10 games | 9-1 |
| 25-15 road | Home / road record | 32-7 home |
| 50-32 (+3.9) | Last season | 34-48 (-2.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Nuggets
Injury report Spurs
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.