Nuggets vs Spurs prediction NBA · Thursday, March 12
At a glance
The San Antonio Spurs (48-18) host the Denver Nuggets (40-26) on Thursday, March 12 at 9:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. Final score: Nuggets 136 – Spurs 131. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Spurs a 66% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Spurs are 25-6 at home and the Nuggets are 22-13 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 9-1 for the Spurs and 5-5 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Spurs W5, Nuggets W1).
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Spurs, but the Nuggets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Spurs 119 – 114 Nuggets, a margin of about 5.0 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.5 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DENSA
Top performers
Nuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2739pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #1512assistsNikola JokicC · #1520reboundsSpurs
Stephon CastleG · #530pts / gameStephon CastleG · #510assistsStephon CastleG · #511reboundsRecent form
DENSAHead-to-head
DEN lead 3-1 this season.
SA
Team comparison
| DEN | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| 40-26 | Record | 48-18 |
| 120.4 | Points scored / game | 117.9 |
| 116.4 | Points allowed / game | 112.5 |
| +3.5 | Adjusted margin / game | +4.6 |
| W1 | Current streak | W5 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 9-1 |
| 22-13 road | Home / road record | 25-6 home |
| 50-32 (+3.9) | Last season | 34-48 (-2.8) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Nuggets
Injury report Spurs
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.