Thunder vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Friday, April 10
At a glance
The Denver Nuggets (52-28) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (64-16) on Friday, April 10 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 107 – Nuggets 127. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 63% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Nuggets are 27-13 at home and the Thunder are 30-9 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 10-0 for the Nuggets and 9-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Nuggets W10, Thunder W7).
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Thunder, but the Nuggets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Nuggets 114 – 118 Thunder, a margin of about 4.0 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.
- The overall strength gap (+4.1 vs +10.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCDEN
Top performers
Thunder
Branden CarlsonC · #1023pts / game
Nikola TopicG · #4411assistsBranden CarlsonC · #1012reboundsNuggets
Jonas ValanciunasC · #1723pts / game
Bruce BrownG · #16assistsJonas ValanciunasC · #1717reboundsRecent form
OKCDENHead-to-head
OKC lead 3-1 this season.
OKC
Team comparison
| OKC | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 64-16 | Record | 52-28 |
| 119.5 | Points scored / game | 121.8 |
| 107.3 | Points allowed / game | 117.0 |
| +10.4 | Adjusted margin / game | +4.1 |
| W7 | Current streak | W10 |
| 9-1 | Last 10 games | 10-0 |
| 30-9 road | Home / road record | 27-13 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 50-32 (+3.9) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Nuggets
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.