Nuggets vs Thunder prediction NBA · Monday, March 9
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (50-15) host the Denver Nuggets (39-25) on Monday, March 9 at 7:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Nuggets 126 – Thunder 129. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 76% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Thunder are 26-7 at home and the Nuggets are 22-12 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 8-2 for the Thunder and 5-5 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Thunder W5, Nuggets L1).
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 120 – 111 Nuggets, a margin of about 8.7 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+9.6 vs +3.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DENOKC
Top performers
Nuggets
Nikola JokicC · #1532pts / gameNikola JokicC · #1513assistsNikola JokicC · #1514reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #235pts / gameShai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #215assists
Jaylin WilliamsF · #612reboundsRecent form
DENOKCHead-to-head
OKC lead 3-1 this season.
OKC
Team comparison
| DEN | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 39-25 | Record | 50-15 |
| 120.3 | Points scored / game | 118.9 |
| 116.5 | Points allowed / game | 107.6 |
| +3.2 | Adjusted margin / game | +9.6 |
| L1 | Current streak | W5 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 8-2 |
| 22-12 road | Home / road record | 26-7 home |
| 50-32 (+3.9) | Last season | 68-14 (+12.9) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Nuggets
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.