Nuggets vs Thunder prediction NBA · Friday, February 27
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (45-15) host the Denver Nuggets (37-22) on Friday, February 27 at 9:47 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Nuggets 121 – Thunder 127. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 74% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Thunder are 24-7 at home and the Nuggets are 21-11 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Thunder and 4-6 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Thunder L1, Nuggets W1).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Thunder 120 – 112 Nuggets, a margin of about 8.2 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+9.9 vs +3.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DENOKC
Top performers
Nuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2739pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #1514assistsNikola JokicC · #1517reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #236pts / gameShai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #29assists
Chet HolmgrenC · #721reboundsRecent form
DENOKCHead-to-head
OKC lead 3-1 this season.
OKC
Team comparison
| DEN | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 37-22 | Record | 45-15 |
| 120.6 | Points scored / game | 119.5 |
| 115.9 | Points allowed / game | 107.9 |
| +3.9 | Adjusted margin / game | +9.9 |
| W1 | Current streak | L1 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 21-11 road | Home / road record | 24-7 home |
| 50-32 (+3.9) | Last season | 68-14 (+12.9) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Nuggets
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.