Thunder vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Sunday, February 1
At a glance
The Denver Nuggets (33-16) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (38-11) on Sunday, February 1 at 9:30 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 121 – Nuggets 111. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 64% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Nuggets are 14-9 at home and the Thunder are 17-6 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Nuggets and 6-4 for the Thunder (current streaks: Nuggets W2, Thunder L1).
The analysis Model
The Thunder are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Nuggets 114 – 118 Thunder, a margin of about 4.5 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.
- The overall strength gap (+3.7 vs +10.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCDEN
Top performers
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #234pts / gameShai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #213assists
Cason WallaceG · #226reboundsNuggets
Peyton WatsonG · #829pts / game
Jamal MurrayG · #2712assists
Nikola JokicC · #157reboundsRecent form
OKCDENHead-to-head
OKC lead 3-1 this season.
OKC
Team comparison
| OKC | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 38-11 | Record | 33-16 |
| 120.3 | Points scored / game | 120.2 |
| 107.9 | Points allowed / game | 115.9 |
| +10.6 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.7 |
| L1 | Current streak | W2 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 17-6 road | Home / road record | 14-9 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 50-32 (+3.9) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Nuggets
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.