Mavericks vs Spurs prediction NBA · Friday, April 10
At a glance
The San Antonio Spurs (61-20) host the Dallas Mavericks (25-55) on Friday, April 10 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 120 – Spurs 139. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Spurs a 84% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Spurs are 31-7 at home and the Mavericks are 10-30 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 9-1 for the Spurs and 2-8 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Spurs W2, Mavericks L2).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Spurs 122 – 110 Mavericks, a margin of about 12.4 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+5.7 vs -4.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Spurs' offense (118.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.1 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DALSA
Top performers
Mavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3233pts / game
Ryan NembhardG · #97assists
Dwight PowellF · #711reboundsSpurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #140pts / game
De'Aaron FoxG · #410assistsVictor WembanyamaF · #113reboundsRecent form
DALSAHead-to-head
SA lead 4-0 this season.
SA
Team comparison
| DAL | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-55 | Record | 61-20 |
| 113.7 | Points scored / game | 118.8 |
| 118.8 | Points allowed / game | 112.1 |
| -4.3 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.7 |
| L2 | Current streak | W2 |
| 2-8 | Last 10 games | 9-1 |
| 10-30 road | Home / road record | 31-7 home |
| 39-43 (-1.2) | Last season | 34-48 (-2.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Mavericks
Injury report Spurs
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.