Spurs vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Thursday, February 5
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (19-31) host the San Antonio Spurs (34-17) on Thursday, February 5 at 8:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Spurs 135 – Mavericks 123. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Spurs a 53% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Mavericks are 14-15 at home and the Spurs are 16-11 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Mavericks and 7-3 for the Spurs (current streaks: Mavericks L5, Spurs W2).
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Mavericks 114 – 115 Spurs, a margin of about 1.0 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (-2.0 vs +2.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
SADAL
Top performers
Spurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #129pts / game
De'Aaron FoxG · #47assistsVictor WembanyamaF · #111reboundsMavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3232pts / game
Ryan NembhardG · #97assists
Daniel GaffordF · #2110reboundsRecent form
SADALHead-to-head
SA lead 4-0 this season.
SA
Team comparison
| SA | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 34-17 | Record | 19-31 |
| 116.3 | Points scored / game | 113.9 |
| 112.9 | Points allowed / game | 116.3 |
| +2.9 | Adjusted margin / game | -2.0 |
| W2 | Current streak | L5 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 16-11 road | Home / road record | 14-15 home |
| 34-48 (-2.8) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Spurs
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.