Mavericks vs Spurs prediction NBA · Saturday, February 7
At a glance
The San Antonio Spurs (35-17) host the Dallas Mavericks (19-32) on Saturday, February 7 at 6:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 125 – Spurs 138. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Spurs a 72% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Spurs are 18-6 at home and the Mavericks are 5-16 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Spurs and 4-6 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Spurs W3, Mavericks L6).
The analysis Model
The Spurs start with a clear edge. The model projects Spurs 119 – 111 Mavericks, a margin of about 7.4 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs -2.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DALSA
Top performers
Mavericks
Klay ThompsonG · #1119pts / game
Tyus JonesG · #57assists
Marvin Bagley IIIF · #312reboundsSpurs
Stephon CastleG · #540pts / gameStephon CastleG · #512assistsStephon CastleG · #512reboundsRecent form
DALSAHead-to-head
SA lead 4-0 this season.
SA
Team comparison
| DAL | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| 19-32 | Record | 35-17 |
| 114.0 | Points scored / game | 116.5 |
| 116.6 | Points allowed / game | 113.0 |
| -2.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| L6 | Current streak | W3 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 5-16 road | Home / road record | 18-6 home |
| 39-43 (-1.2) | Last season | 34-48 (-2.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Mavericks
Injury report Spurs
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.