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Heat vs Raptors prediction NBA · Thursday, April 9

FinalScotiabank Arena · FanDuel SN Sun, NBA League Pass, Sportsnet

Miami Heat

41-39 · away

Final score

114-128

Projected: 115-117

Toronto Raptors

45-35 · home

43% win MIAwin TOR 57%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin2.2

Projected total231

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (44-35) host the Miami Heat (41-38) on Thursday, April 9 at 7:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. Final score: Heat 114 – Raptors 128. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Raptors a 57% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Raptors are 22-17 at home and the Heat are 16-23 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Raptors and 3-7 for the Heat (current streaks: Raptors W1, Heat L1).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Raptors 117 – 115 Heat, a margin of about 2.2 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (119.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +1.4 / MIA +1.5 per game

-0.1

Home-court advantageRaptors at home

+2.3

Expected marginfor Raptors

+2.2

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+

27%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Heat win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

MIATOR

119.1

Points scored / game

114.0

117.3

Points allowed / game

112.3

45.3 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

31.7 %

3-point %

30.4 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

34.5

71.7 %

Free throw %

79.0 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

45.8

27.0

Assists / game

27.3

8.4

Steals / game

14.3

5.4

Blocks / game

5.5

14.2

Turnovers / game

14.0

Top performers

Heat

Bam AdebayoC · #1324pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #211assists

Bam AdebayoC · #1311rebounds

Raptors

Brandon IngramF · #738pts / game

Brandon IngramF · #77assists

Collin Murray-BoylesF · #308rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

No games played yet.

TOR

No games played yet.

Head-to-head

TOR lead 4-0 this season.

Team comparison

MIA		TOR
41-38	Record	44-35
119.1	Points scored / game	114.0
117.3	Points allowed / game	112.3
+1.5	Adjusted margin / game	+1.4
L1	Current streak	W1
3-7	Last 10 games	5-5
16-23 road	Home / road record	22-17 home
37-45 (+0.6)	Last season	30-52 (-4.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

No injuries reported.

Injury report Raptors

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.