Lakers vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Sunday, April 5
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (24-53) host the Los Angeles Lakers (50-27) on Sunday, April 5 at 7:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Lakers 128 – Mavericks 134. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Lakers a 60% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Mavericks are 14-25 at home and the Lakers are 24-15 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 2-8 for the Mavericks and 8-2 for the Lakers (current streaks: Mavericks L3, Lakers L1).
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Lakers, but the Mavericks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Mavericks 114 – 117 Lakers, a margin of about 3.3 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (-4.4 vs +1.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
LALDAL
Top performers
Lakers
LeBron JamesF · #2330pts / gameLeBron JamesF · #2315assists
Luke KennardG · #816reboundsMavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3245pts / gameCooper FlaggF · #329assistsCooper FlaggF · #328reboundsRecent form
LALDALHead-to-head
LAL lead 3-1 this season.
DAL
Team comparison
| LAL | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 50-27 | Record | 24-53 |
| 116.1 | Points scored / game | 113.7 |
| 114.6 | Points allowed / game | 118.8 |
| +1.3 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.4 |
| L1 | Current streak | L3 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 games | 2-8 |
| 24-15 road | Home / road record | 14-25 home |
| 50-32 (+1.2) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Lakers
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.