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Lakers vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Saturday, January 24

FinalAmerican Airlines Center · ABC
48% win LALwin DAL 52%
FavoriteDAL
Projected margin0.6
Projected total231
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (19-26) host the Los Angeles Lakers (26-17) on Saturday, January 24 at 8:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Lakers 116 – Mavericks 110. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Mavericks a 52% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Mavericks are 14-11 at home and the Lakers are 14-9 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Mavericks and 4-6 for the Lakers (current streaks: Mavericks W4, Lakers L1).

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Mavericks 116 – 115 Lakers, a margin of about 0.6 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -1.7 / LAL -0.0 per game
-1.7
Home-court advantageMavericks at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Mavericks
+0.6

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+
23%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Lakers win by 10+
20%

Stat comparison Current season

LALDAL
115.4
Points scored / game
114.3
115.5
Points allowed / game
116.3
52.9 %
Field goal %
49.0 %
39.2 %
3-point %
34.6 %
36.2
3-pointers attempted / game
38.2
79.1 %
Free throw %
76.7 %
38.0
Rebounds / game
44.2
24.0
Assists / game
27.6
10.8
Steals / game
9.0
5.8
Blocks / game
7.4
16.6
Turnovers / game
15.6

Top performers

Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7733pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #7711assists
Deandre AytonC · #811rebounds
Mavericks
Max ChristieG · #024pts / game
Cooper FlaggF · #326assists
Naji MarshallF · #311rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
LAL
No games played yet.
DAL
No games played yet.

Team comparison

LALDAL
26-17Record19-26
115.4Points scored / game114.3
115.5Points allowed / game116.3
-0.0Adjusted margin / game-1.7
L1Current streakW4
4-6Last 10 games7-3
14-9 roadHome / road record14-11 home
50-32 (+1.2)Last season39-43 (-1.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

No injuries reported.

Dallas Mavericks Injury report Mavericks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.