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Mavericks vs Lakers prediction NBA · Thursday, February 12

Finalcrypto.com Arena · Prime Video, Spectrum Sports Net
36% win DALwin LAL 64%
FavoriteLAL
Projected margin4.6
Projected total231
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (32-21) host the Dallas Mavericks (19-34) on Thursday, February 12 at 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 104 – Lakers 124. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Lakers a 64% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Lakers are 14-10 at home and the Mavericks are 5-18 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Lakers and 2-8 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Lakers L2, Mavericks L8).

The analysis Model

The Lakers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Lakers 118 – 113 Mavericks, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL -0.1 / DAL -2.4 per game
+2.3
Home-court advantageLakers at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Lakers
+4.6

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+
33%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Mavericks win by 10+
12%

Stat comparison Current season

DALLAL
114.1
Points scored / game
115.4
116.9
Points allowed / game
115.5
49.0 %
Field goal %
52.9 %
34.6 %
3-point %
39.2 %
38.2
3-pointers attempted / game
36.2
76.7 %
Free throw %
79.1 %
44.2
Rebounds / game
38.0
27.6
Assists / game
24.0
9.0
Steals / game
10.8
7.4
Blocks / game
5.8
15.6
Turnovers / game
16.6

Top performers

Mavericks
Naji MarshallF · #319pts / game
Brandon WilliamsG · #127assists
Daniel GaffordF · #216rebounds
Lakers
LeBron JamesF · #2328pts / game
LeBron JamesF · #2312assists
LeBron JamesF · #2310rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DAL
No games played yet.
LAL
No games played yet.

Team comparison

DALLAL
19-34Record32-21
114.1Points scored / game115.4
116.9Points allowed / game115.5
-2.4Adjusted margin / game-0.1
L8Current streakL2
2-8Last 10 games6-4
5-18 roadHome / road record14-10 home
39-43 (-1.2)Last season50-32 (+1.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Dallas Mavericks Injury report Mavericks

No injuries reported.

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.