Celtics vs Heat prediction NBA · Wednesday, April 1
At a glance
The Miami Heat (40-36) host the Boston Celtics (50-25) on Wednesday, April 1 at 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. Final score: Celtics 147 – Heat 129. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Celtics a 57% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Heat are 24-14 at home and the Celtics are 24-14 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 3-7 for the Heat and 7-3 for the Celtics (current streaks: Heat W1, Celtics L1).
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Heat 113 – 115 Celtics, a margin of about 2.1 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+1.8 vs +6.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Heat's offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
BOSMIA
Top performers
Celtics
Jaylen BrownG · #743pts / game
Jayson TatumF · #011assistsJayson TatumF · #018reboundsHeat
Bam AdebayoC · #1329pts / game
Davion MitchellG · #27assistsBam AdebayoC · #1310reboundsRecent form
BOSMIAHead-to-head
BOS lead 4-0 this season.
MIA
Team comparison
| BOS | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 50-25 | Record | 40-36 |
| 114.3 | Points scored / game | 118.9 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 116.8 |
| +6.3 | Adjusted margin / game | +1.8 |
| L1 | Current streak | W1 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 3-7 |
| 24-14 road | Home / road record | 24-14 home |
| 61-21 (+9.1) | Last season | 37-45 (+0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Celtics
Injury report Heat
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.