Heat vs Celtics prediction NBA · Friday, December 19
At a glance
The Boston Celtics (15-11) host the Miami Heat (15-12) on Friday, December 19 at 7:00 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. Final score: Heat 116 – Celtics 129. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Celtics a 72% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Celtics are 8-5 at home and the Heat are 5-8 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Celtics and 4-6 for the Heat (current streaks: Celtics L2, Heat W1).
The analysis Model
The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Celtics 117 – 110 Heat, a margin of about 7.3 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MIABOS
Top performers
Heat
Kel'el WareC · #924pts / game
Kasparas JakucionisG · #254assistsKel'el WareC · #914reboundsCeltics
Derrick WhiteG · #933pts / game
Jaylen BrownG · #77assistsJaylen BrownG · #79reboundsRecent form
MIABOSHead-to-head
BOS lead 4-0 this season.
MIA
Team comparison
| MIA | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 15-12 | Record | 15-11 |
| 117.2 | Points scored / game | 116.2 |
| 114.8 | Points allowed / game | 109.7 |
| +2.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.5 |
| W1 | Current streak | L2 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 5-8 road | Home / road record | 8-5 home |
| 37-45 (+0.6) | Last season | 61-21 (+9.1) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Heat
Injury report Celtics
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.