Heat vs Celtics prediction NBA · Friday, February 6
At a glance
The Boston Celtics (33-18) host the Miami Heat (27-25) on Friday, February 6 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. Final score: Heat 96 – Celtics 98. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Celtics a 72% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Celtics are 16-8 at home and the Heat are 11-15 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Celtics and 5-5 for the Heat (current streaks: Celtics W4, Heat L1).
The analysis Model
The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Celtics 118 – 111 Heat, a margin of about 7.4 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+6.5 vs +1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MIABOS
Top performers
Heat
Andrew WigginsF · #2226pts / game
Jaime Jaquez Jr.F · #247assists
Bam AdebayoC · #137reboundsCeltics
Jaylen BrownG · #729pts / game
Derrick WhiteG · #95assists
Nikola VucevicC · #912reboundsRecent form
MIABOSHead-to-head
BOS lead 4-0 this season.
MIA
Team comparison
| MIA | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-25 | Record | 33-18 |
| 118.2 | Points scored / game | 116.0 |
| 116.5 | Points allowed / game | 108.3 |
| +1.4 | Adjusted margin / game | +6.5 |
| L1 | Current streak | W4 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 11-15 road | Home / road record | 16-8 home |
| 37-45 (+0.6) | Last season | 61-21 (+9.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Heat
Injury report Celtics
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.