Celtics vs Heat prediction NBA · Thursday, January 15
At a glance
The Miami Heat (21-19) host the Boston Celtics (24-15) on Thursday, January 15 at 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. Final score: Celtics 119 – Heat 114. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Celtics a 58% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Heat are 14-6 at home and the Celtics are 12-8 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Heat and 6-4 for the Celtics (current streaks: Heat W1, Celtics L2).
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Heat 114 – 116 Celtics, a margin of about 2.5 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+1.3 vs +6.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
BOSMIA
Top performers
Celtics
Anfernee SimonsG · #539pts / game
Payton PritchardG · #118assists
Neemias QuetaC · #889reboundsHeat
Norman PowellG · #2426pts / game
Kasparas JakucionisG · #258assists
Andrew WigginsF · #228reboundsRecent form
BOSMIAHead-to-head
BOS lead 4-0 this season.
MIA
Team comparison
| BOS | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-15 | Record | 21-19 |
| 116.5 | Points scored / game | 117.5 |
| 109.4 | Points allowed / game | 116.0 |
| +6.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +1.3 |
| L2 | Current streak | W1 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 12-8 road | Home / road record | 14-6 home |
| 61-21 (+9.1) | Last season | 37-45 (+0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Celtics
Injury report Heat
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.