Timberwolves vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Monday, March 30
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (24-50) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (45-29) on Monday, March 30 at 8:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Timberwolves 124 – Mavericks 94. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Timberwolves a 65% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Mavericks are 14-23 at home and the Timberwolves are 20-15 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 3-7 for the Mavericks and 5-5 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Mavericks W1, Timberwolves L1).
The analysis Model
The Timberwolves are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 113 – 118 Timberwolves, a margin of about 4.7 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (-3.9 vs +3.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Timberwolves' offense (117.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MINDAL
Top performers
Timberwolves
Julius RandleF · #3024pts / game
Ayo DosunmuG · #1312assistsAyo DosunmuG · #1315reboundsMavericks
Daniel GaffordF · #2121pts / game
Brandon WilliamsG · #127assistsDaniel GaffordF · #218reboundsRecent form
MINDALHead-to-head
MIN lead 4-0 this season.
DAL
Team comparison
| MIN | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 45-29 | Record | 24-50 |
| 117.4 | Points scored / game | 113.9 |
| 113.7 | Points allowed / game | 118.4 |
| +3.1 | Adjusted margin / game | -3.9 |
| L1 | Current streak | W1 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 3-7 |
| 20-15 road | Home / road record | 14-23 home |
| 49-33 (+5.0) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Timberwolves
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.