Timberwolves vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 28
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (19-27) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (28-19) on Wednesday, January 28 at 8:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Timberwolves 118 – Mavericks 105. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Timberwolves a 61% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Mavericks are 14-12 at home and the Timberwolves are 12-11 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Mavericks and 4-6 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Mavericks L1, Timberwolves W1).
The analysis Model
The Timberwolves are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 114 – 117 Timberwolves, a margin of about 3.4 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (-1.7 vs +4.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Timberwolves' offense (118.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MINDAL
Top performers
Timberwolves
Julius RandleF · #3031pts / game
Anthony EdwardsG · #56assists
Naz ReidC · #08reboundsMavericks
P.J. WashingtonF · #2521pts / game
Caleb MartinF · #165assists
Dwight PowellF · #79reboundsRecent form
MINDALHead-to-head
MIN lead 4-0 this season.
DAL
Team comparison
| MIN | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 28-19 | Record | 19-27 |
| 118.0 | Points scored / game | 114.3 |
| 113.3 | Points allowed / game | 116.3 |
| +4.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.7 |
| W1 | Current streak | L1 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 12-11 road | Home / road record | 14-12 home |
| 49-33 (+5.0) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Timberwolves
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.