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Mavericks vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Monday, November 17

FinalTarget Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV, NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN North
Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Mavericks
4-11 · away
Final score
96-120
Projected: 108-120
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
9-5 · home
19% win DALwin MIN 81%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin11.2
Projected total228
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (8-5) host the Dallas Mavericks (4-10) on Monday, November 17 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 96 – Timberwolves 120. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Timberwolves a 81% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Timberwolves are 3-3 at home and the Mavericks are 1-3 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Timberwolves and 3-7 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Timberwolves L1, Mavericks W1).

The analysis Model

On paper, the Timberwolves dominate this matchup. The model projects Timberwolves 120 – 108 Mavericks, a margin of about 11.2 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

  • The overall strength gap (+4.2 vs -3.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Timberwolves' offense (117.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +4.2 / DAL -3.1 per game
+7.3
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
Back-to-backMavericks played yesterday
+1.6
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
+11.2

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
54%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
21%
Mavericks win by 10+
5%

Stat comparison Current season

DALMIN
112.6
Points scored / game
117.6
116.3
Points allowed / game
112.7
49.0 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
34.6 %
3-point %
38.4 %
38.2
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
76.7 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
44.2
Rebounds / game
51.6
27.6
Assists / game
27.0
9.0
Steals / game
9.2
7.4
Blocks / game
4.4
15.6
Turnovers / game
16.2

Top performers

Mavericks
Jaden HardyG · #717pts / game
D'Angelo RussellG4assists
Moussa CisseC · #3010rebounds
Timberwolves
Naz ReidC · #022pts / game
Rudy GobertC · #274assists
Naz ReidC · #012rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DAL
No games played yet.
MIN
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

MIN lead 4-0 this season.

Nov 17DAL96 - 120MINJan 28MIN118 - 105DALFeb 20DAL111 - 122MINMar 30MIN124 - 94DAL

Team comparison

DALMIN
4-10Record8-5
112.6Points scored / game117.6
116.3Points allowed / game112.7
-3.1Adjusted margin / game+4.2
W1Current streakL1
3-7Last 10 games6-4
1-3 roadHome / road record3-3 home
39-43 (-1.2)Last season49-33 (+5.0)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Dallas Mavericks Injury report Mavericks

No injuries reported.

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.