Mavericks vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 25
At a glance
The Denver Nuggets (45-28) host the Dallas Mavericks (23-49) on Wednesday, March 25 at 10:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 135 – Nuggets 142. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Nuggets a 75% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Nuggets are 21-13 at home and the Mavericks are 9-26 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Nuggets and 2-8 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Nuggets W3, Mavericks L4).
The analysis Model
The Nuggets start with a clear edge. The model projects Nuggets 121 – 113 Mavericks, a margin of about 8.3 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (+3.7 vs -4.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (120.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DALDEN
Top performers
Mavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3226pts / gameCooper FlaggF · #327assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #2515reboundsNuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2753pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #1519assistsNikola JokicC · #1521reboundsRecent form
DALDENHead-to-head
Tied 2-2 this season.
DAL
Team comparison
| DAL | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-49 | Record | 45-28 |
| 113.8 | Points scored / game | 120.8 |
| 118.5 | Points allowed / game | 116.5 |
| -4.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.7 |
| L4 | Current streak | W3 |
| 2-8 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 9-26 road | Home / road record | 21-13 home |
| 39-43 (-1.2) | Last season | 50-32 (+3.9) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Mavericks
Injury report Nuggets
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.