Nuggets vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 14
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (15-25) host the Denver Nuggets (27-13) on Wednesday, January 14 at 9:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Nuggets 118 – Mavericks 109. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Nuggets a 60% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Mavericks are 11-10 at home and the Nuggets are 16-7 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Mavericks and 5-5 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Mavericks W1, Nuggets W2).
The analysis Model
The Nuggets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 115 – 118 Nuggets, a margin of about 3.0 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs +4.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (122.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DENDAL
Top performers
Nuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2733pts / gameJamal MurrayG · #275assists
Aaron GordonF · #326reboundsMavericks
Naji MarshallF · #324pts / game
Ryan NembhardG · #94assists
Daniel GaffordF · #2110reboundsRecent form
DENDALHead-to-head
Tied 2-2 this season.
DAL
Team comparison
| DEN | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-13 | Record | 15-25 |
| 122.3 | Points scored / game | 113.3 |
| 117.3 | Points allowed / game | 116.5 |
| +4.2 | Adjusted margin / game | -2.8 |
| W2 | Current streak | W1 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 16-7 road | Home / road record | 11-10 home |
| 50-32 (+3.9) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Nuggets
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.