Nuggets vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 23
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (11-19) host the Denver Nuggets (21-7) on Tuesday, December 23 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Nuggets 130 – Mavericks 131. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Nuggets a 71% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Mavericks are 8-9 at home and the Nuggets are 12-2 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Mavericks and 8-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Mavericks L2, Nuggets W1).
The analysis Model
The Nuggets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 113 – 120 Nuggets, a margin of about 6.7 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Mavericks and the Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (-2.7 vs +6.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (123.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DENDAL
Top performers
Nuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2731pts / gameJamal MurrayG · #2714assistsJamal MurrayG · #277reboundsMavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3233pts / gameCooper FlaggF · #329assistsCooper FlaggF · #329reboundsRecent form
DENDALHead-to-head
Tied 2-2 this season.
DAL
Team comparison
| DEN | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-7 | Record | 11-19 |
| 123.8 | Points scored / game | 113.4 |
| 116.3 | Points allowed / game | 116.5 |
| +6.4 | Adjusted margin / game | -2.7 |
| W1 | Current streak | L2 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 12-2 road | Home / road record | 8-9 home |
| 50-32 (+3.9) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Nuggets
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.