Timberwolves vs Thunder prediction NBA · Sunday, March 15
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (52-15) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (41-26) on Sunday, March 15 at 1:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Timberwolves 103 – Thunder 116. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 75% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Thunder are 28-7 at home and the Timberwolves are 19-14 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 9-1 for the Thunder and 6-4 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Thunder W7, Timberwolves W1).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Thunder 119 – 110 Timberwolves, a margin of about 8.5 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+9.4 vs +3.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MINOKCTop performers
Timberwolves
Julius RandleF · #3032pts / gameJulius RandleF · #306assists
Donte DiVincenzoG · #09reboundsThunder
Chet HolmgrenC · #721pts / game
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #210assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #5512reboundsRecent form
MINOKCHead-to-head
Tied 2-2 this season.
MIN
Team comparison
| MIN | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 41-26 | Record | 52-15 |
| 118.0 | Points scored / game | 118.9 |
| 114.3 | Points allowed / game | 107.8 |
| +3.2 | Adjusted margin / game | +9.4 |
| W1 | Current streak | W7 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 9-1 |
| 19-14 road | Home / road record | 28-7 home |
| 49-33 (+5.0) | Last season | 68-14 (+12.9) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Timberwolves
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.