Login
Match analysisToday's gamesNBA standingsEuroLeagueTrack record
← Back

Thunder vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Thursday, January 29

FinalTarget Center · Prime Video, FanDuel SN OK
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
38-11 · away
Final score
111-123
Projected: 117-111
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
30-19 · home
69% win OKCwin MIN 31%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin6.1
Projected total228
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (29-19) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (38-10) on Thursday, January 29 at 9:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 111 – Timberwolves 123. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 69% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Timberwolves are 16-8 at home and the Thunder are 17-5 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Timberwolves and 7-3 for the Thunder (current streaks: Timberwolves W2, Thunder W1).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Thunder, but the Timberwolves have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Timberwolves 111 – 117 Thunder, a margin of about 6.1 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

  • The overall strength gap (+4.1 vs +10.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +4.1 / OKC +10.9 per game
-6.8
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
Back-to-backTimberwolves played yesterday
-1.6
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
-6.1

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
10%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Thunder win by 10+
38%

Stat comparison Current season

OKCMIN
120.5
Points scored / game
118.0
107.6
Points allowed / game
113.2
44.0 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
30.9 %
3-point %
38.4 %
32.4
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
86.4 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
46.0
Rebounds / game
51.6
22.0
Assists / game
27.0
8.4
Steals / game
9.2
6.8
Blocks / game
4.4
13.6
Turnovers / game
16.2

Top performers

Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #230pts / game
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #28assists
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #26rebounds
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #526pts / game
Anthony EdwardsG · #55assists
Rudy GobertC · #2711rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
OKC
No games played yet.
MIN
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

Tied 2-2 this season.

Nov 26MIN105 - 113OKCDec 19OKC107 - 112MINJan 29OKC111 - 123MINMar 15MIN103 - 116OKC

Team comparison

OKCMIN
38-10Record29-19
120.5Points scored / game118.0
107.6Points allowed / game113.2
+10.9Adjusted margin / game+4.1
W1Current streakW2
7-3Last 10 games4-6
17-5 roadHome / road record16-8 home
68-14 (+12.9)Last season49-33 (+5.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayYes

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

No injuries reported.

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.