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Thunder vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Friday, December 19

FinalTarget Center · Prime Video
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
25-3 · away
Final score
107-112
Projected: 117-112
Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota Timberwolves
18-10 · home
66% win OKCwin MIN 34%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin5.2
Projected total228
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (17-10) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (25-2) on Friday, December 19 at 9:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 107 – Timberwolves 112. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 66% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Timberwolves are 9-5 at home and the Thunder are 12-1 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Timberwolves and 9-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Timberwolves L1, Thunder W1).

The analysis Model

The Thunder are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Timberwolves 112 – 117 Thunder, a margin of about 5.2 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

  • The overall strength gap (+4.2 vs +13.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Thunder's offense (122.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +4.2 / OKC +13.3 per game
-9.1
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
Back-to-backThunder played yesterday
+1.6
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
-5.2

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
11%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Thunder win by 10+
35%

Stat comparison Current season

OKCMIN
122.3
Points scored / game
117.9
106.6
Points allowed / game
112.9
44.0 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
30.9 %
3-point %
38.4 %
32.4
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
86.4 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
46.0
Rebounds / game
51.6
22.0
Assists / game
27.0
8.4
Steals / game
9.2
6.8
Blocks / game
4.4
13.6
Turnovers / game
16.2

Top performers

Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #235pts / game
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #27assists
Alex CarusoG · #912rebounds
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #526pts / game
Julius RandleF · #305assists
Rudy GobertC · #2714rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
OKC
No games played yet.
MIN
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

Tied 2-2 this season.

Nov 26MIN105 - 113OKCDec 19OKC107 - 112MINJan 29OKC111 - 123MINMar 15MIN103 - 116OKC

Team comparison

OKCMIN
25-2Record17-10
122.3Points scored / game117.9
106.6Points allowed / game112.9
+13.3Adjusted margin / game+4.2
W1Current streakL1
9-1Last 10 games7-3
12-1 roadHome / road record9-5 home
68-14 (+12.9)Last season49-33 (+5.0)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

No injuries reported.

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.