Warriors vs Thunder prediction NBA · Saturday, March 7
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (49-15) host the Golden State Warriors (32-30) on Saturday, March 7 at 8:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 97 – Thunder 104. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 80% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Thunder are 25-7 at home and the Warriors are 13-17 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 8-2 for the Thunder and 4-6 for the Warriors (current streaks: Thunder W4, Warriors W1).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Thunder 119 – 109 Warriors, a margin of about 10.6 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+9.7 vs +1.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (119.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
GSOKCTop performers
Warriors
Gui SantosF · #1522pts / game
Brandin PodziemskiG · #26assists
Gary Payton IIG · #012reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #227pts / gameShai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #25assists
Jaylin WilliamsF · #614reboundsRecent form
GSOKCHead-to-head
OKC lead 4-0 this season.
GS
Team comparison
| GS | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 32-30 | Record | 49-15 |
| 115.1 | Points scored / game | 119.1 |
| 113.5 | Points allowed / game | 107.7 |
| +1.4 | Adjusted margin / game | +9.7 |
| W1 | Current streak | W4 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 games | 8-2 |
| 13-17 road | Home / road record | 25-7 home |
| 48-34 (+3.3) | Last season | 68-14 (+12.9) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Warriors
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.