Thunder vs Warriors prediction NBA · Friday, January 2
At a glance
The Golden State Warriors (18-16) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (29-5) on Friday, January 2 at 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 131 – Warriors 94. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 73% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Warriors are 10-4 at home and the Thunder are 12-3 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Warriors and 6-4 for the Thunder (current streaks: Warriors W2, Thunder W3).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Warriors 110 – 118 Thunder, a margin of about 7.7 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+2.1 vs +12.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (121.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCGSTop performers
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #230pts / gameShai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #27assists
Chet HolmgrenC · #715reboundsWarriors
Al HorfordC · #2013pts / game
Pat SpencerG · #6111assists
Trayce Jackson-DavisF · #329reboundsRecent form
OKCGSHead-to-head
OKC lead 4-0 this season.
GS
Team comparison
| OKC | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| 29-5 | Record | 18-16 |
| 121.7 | Points scored / game | 115.1 |
| 107.6 | Points allowed / game | 112.7 |
| +12.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.1 |
| W3 | Current streak | W2 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 12-3 road | Home / road record | 10-4 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 48-34 (+3.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Warriors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.