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Warriors vs Suns prediction NBA · Thursday, February 5

FinalMortgage Matchup Center · Prime Video, NBC Sports BA, Arizona's Family 3TV, Suns Live
45% win GSwin PHX 55%
FavoritePHX
Projected margin1.4
Projected total228
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (31-20) host the Golden State Warriors (27-24) on Thursday, February 5 at 10:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 101 – Suns 97. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Suns a 55% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Suns are 17-7 at home and the Warriors are 10-15 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Suns and 5-5 for the Warriors (current streaks: Suns W1, Warriors L2).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Suns 115 – 113 Warriors, a margin of about 1.4 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns
Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX +1.2 / GS +2.1 per game
-0.9
Home-court advantageSuns at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Suns
+1.4

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+
25%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Warriors win by 10+
18%

Stat comparison Current season

GSPHX
115.8
Points scored / game
114.0
113.3
Points allowed / game
112.6
45.0 %
Field goal %
45.6 %
36.9 %
3-point %
31.9 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
39.7
82.2 %
Free throw %
73.9 %
43.8
Rebounds / game
39.7
25.6
Assists / game
25.3
9.6
Steals / game
8.7
3.8
Blocks / game
5.3
16.8
Turnovers / game
14.0

Top performers

Warriors
Pat SpencerG · #6120pts / game
Gui SantosF · #157assists
Gary Payton IIG · #08rebounds
Suns
Dillon BrooksF · #324pts / game
Royce O'NealeF · #005assists
Mark WilliamsC · #2510rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
GS
No games played yet.
PHX
No games played yet.

Team comparison

GSPHX
27-24Record31-20
115.8Points scored / game114.0
113.3Points allowed / game112.6
+2.1Adjusted margin / game+1.2
L2Current streakW1
5-5Last 10 games7-3
10-15 roadHome / road record17-7 home
48-34 (+3.3)Last season36-46 (-3.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

No injuries reported.

Phoenix Suns Injury report Suns

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.