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Warriors vs Suns prediction NBA · Thursday, December 18

FinalMortgage Matchup Center · NBC Sports BA, NBA League Pass, Arizona's Family 3TV, Suns Live
50% win GSwin PHX 50%
FavoritePHX
Projected margin0.1
Projected total228
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Phoenix Suns (14-12) host the Golden State Warriors (13-14) on Thursday, December 18 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 98 – Suns 99. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Suns a 50% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Suns are 8-5 at home and the Warriors are 6-10 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Suns and 4-6 for the Warriors (current streaks: Suns L2, Warriors L2).

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Suns 115 – 114 Warriors, a margin of about 0.1 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Suns
Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHX -0.6 / GS +1.6 per game
-2.2
Home-court advantageSuns at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Suns
+0.1

Scenarios

Suns win by 10+
21%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Warriors win by 10+
21%

Stat comparison Current season

GSPHX
114.2
Points scored / game
114.4
112.4
Points allowed / game
115.2
45.0 %
Field goal %
45.6 %
36.9 %
3-point %
31.9 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
39.7
82.2 %
Free throw %
73.9 %
43.8
Rebounds / game
39.7
25.6
Assists / game
25.3
9.6
Steals / game
8.7
3.8
Blocks / game
5.3
16.8
Turnovers / game
14.0

Top performers

Warriors
Jimmy Butler IIIF · #1031pts / game
Stephen CurryG · #307assists
Quinten PostC · #4111rebounds
Suns
Devin BookerG · #1525pts / game
Collin GillespieG · #125assists
Oso IghodaroF · #1113rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
GS
No games played yet.
PHX
No games played yet.

Team comparison

GSPHX
13-14Record14-12
114.2Points scored / game114.4
112.4Points allowed / game115.2
+1.6Adjusted margin / game-0.6
L2Current streakL2
4-6Last 10 games4-6
6-10 roadHome / road record8-5 home
48-34 (+3.3)Last season36-46 (-3.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

No injuries reported.

Phoenix Suns Injury report Suns

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.