Rockets vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Saturday, January 3
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (12-23) host the Houston Rockets (21-10) on Saturday, January 3 at 8:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Rockets 104 – Mavericks 110. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Rockets a 72% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Mavericks are 9-10 at home and the Rockets are 11-8 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 3-7 for the Mavericks and 6-4 for the Rockets (current streaks: Mavericks L4, Rockets W4).
The analysis Model
The Rockets start with a clear edge. The model projects Mavericks 112 – 119 Rockets, a margin of about 7.3 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (-3.0 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Rockets' offense (118.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
HOUDAL
Top performers
Rockets
Kevin DurantF · #734pts / gameKevin DurantF · #77assists
Amen ThompsonG · #112reboundsMavericks
Anthony DavisF · #2326pts / game
Cooper FlaggF · #326assistsAnthony DavisF · #2312reboundsRecent form
HOUDALHead-to-head
Tied 2-2 this season.
DAL
Team comparison
| HOU | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-10 | Record | 12-23 |
| 118.8 | Points scored / game | 113.7 |
| 111.0 | Points allowed / game | 117.2 |
| +6.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -3.0 |
| W4 | Current streak | L4 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 3-7 |
| 11-8 road | Home / road record | 9-10 home |
| 52-30 (+4.5) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Rockets
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.