Rockets vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Saturday, December 6
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (8-16) host the Houston Rockets (15-5) on Saturday, December 6 at 8:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Rockets 109 – Mavericks 122. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Rockets a 75% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Mavericks are 5-9 at home and the Rockets are 8-3 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Mavericks and 8-2 for the Rockets (current streaks: Mavericks L1, Rockets W2).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Rockets dominate this matchup. The model projects Mavericks 109 – 118 Rockets, a margin of about 8.6 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks and the Rockets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (-3.2 vs +7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Rockets' offense (118.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
HOUDAL
Top performers
Rockets
Kevin DurantF · #727pts / game
Amen ThompsonG · #16assists
Jabari Smith Jr.F · #108reboundsMavericks
Anthony DavisF · #2329pts / game
Ryan NembhardG · #97assistsAnthony DavisF · #238reboundsRecent form
HOUDALHead-to-head
Tied 2-2 this season.
DAL
Team comparison
| HOU | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 15-5 | Record | 8-16 |
| 118.8 | Points scored / game | 112.3 |
| 109.7 | Points allowed / game | 116.1 |
| +7.7 | Adjusted margin / game | -3.2 |
| W2 | Current streak | L1 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 8-3 road | Home / road record | 5-9 home |
| 52-30 (+4.5) | Last season | 39-43 (-1.2) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Rockets
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.