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Suns vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Friday, December 26

FinalSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com, Arizona's Family 3TV, Suns Live, NBA League Pass
63% win PHXwin NO 37%
FavoritePHX
Projected margin4.3
Projected total232
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (8-23) host the Phoenix Suns (16-13) on Friday, December 26 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. Final score: Suns 115 – Pelicans 108. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Suns a 63% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Pelicans are 6-12 at home and the Suns are 6-8 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Pelicans and 4-6 for the Suns (current streaks: Pelicans L1, Suns W1).

The analysis Model

The Suns are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pelicans 114 – 118 Suns, a margin of about 4.3 points in favor of the Suns and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The overall strength gap (-6.7 vs -0.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Suns' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -6.7 / PHX -0.1 per game
-6.6
Home-court advantagePelicans at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Pelicans
-4.3

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+
13%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Suns win by 10+
32%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXNO
114.5
Points scored / game
113.9
114.7
Points allowed / game
121.8
45.6 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
31.9 %
3-point %
29.0 %
39.7
3-pointers attempted / game
31.0
73.9 %
Free throw %
83.6 %
39.7
Rebounds / game
44.3
25.3
Assists / game
23.5
8.7
Steals / game
12.3
5.3
Blocks / game
4.8
14.0
Turnovers / game
16.5

Top performers

Suns
Devin BookerG · #1530pts / game
Collin GillespieG · #129assists
Mark WilliamsC · #2513rebounds
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #120pts / game
Zion WilliamsonF · #16assists
Zion WilliamsonF · #18rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
PHX
No games played yet.
NO
No games played yet.

Team comparison

PHXNO
16-13Record8-23
114.5Points scored / game113.9
114.7Points allowed / game121.8
-0.1Adjusted margin / game-6.7
W1Current streakL1
4-6Last 10 games5-5
6-8 roadHome / road record6-12 home
36-46 (-3.0)Last season21-61 (-9.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Phoenix Suns Injury report Suns

No injuries reported.

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.