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Bucks vs Pacers prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 23

FinalGainbridge Fieldhouse · FanDuel SN IN, FanDuel SN WI, NBA League Pass
56% win MILwin IND 44%
FavoriteMIL
Projected margin2.0
Projected total228
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (6-23) host the Milwaukee Bucks (11-18) on Tuesday, December 23 at 7:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. Final score: Bucks 111 – Pacers 94. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Bucks a 56% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Pacers are 5-10 at home and the Bucks are 3-10 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 3-7 for the Pacers and 3-7 for the Bucks (current streaks: Pacers L5, Bucks L3).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Pacers 113 – 115 Bucks, a margin of about 2.0 points in favor of the Bucks and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

  • The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.4 / MIL -1.7 per game
-2.7
Home-court advantagePacers at home
+2.3
Back-to-backPacers played yesterday
-1.6
Expected marginfor Pacers
-2.0

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+
17%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Bucks win by 10+
26%

Stat comparison Current season

MILIND
113.8
Points scored / game
111.9
115.8
Points allowed / game
117.1
44.9 %
Field goal %
47.1 %
34.0 %
3-point %
31.2 %
41.2
3-pointers attempted / game
37.8
71.6 %
Free throw %
72.7 %
49.8
Rebounds / game
44.0
24.6
Assists / game
29.4
5.8
Steals / game
6.4
4.0
Blocks / game
4.8
16.8
Turnovers / game
14.8

Top performers

Bucks
Kevin Porter Jr.G · #724pts / game
Kevin Porter Jr.G · #75assists
Bobby PortisF · #959rebounds
Pacers
T.J. McConnellG · #916pts / game
T.J. McConnellG · #96assists
Pascal SiakamF · #439rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIL
No games played yet.
IND
No games played yet.

Team comparison

MILIND
11-18Record6-23
113.8Points scored / game111.9
115.8Points allowed / game117.1
-1.7Adjusted margin / game-4.4
L3Current streakL5
3-7Last 10 games3-7
3-10 roadHome / road record5-10 home
48-34 (+2.5)Last season50-32 (+2.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayYes

Milwaukee Bucks Injury report Bucks

No injuries reported.

Indiana Pacers Injury report Pacers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.