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Celtics vs Raptors prediction NBA · Sunday, December 7

FinalScotiabank Arena · NBC Sports BO, NBA League Pass, Sportsnet

Boston Celtics

15-9 · away

Final score

121-113

Projected: 115-112

Toronto Raptors

15-10 · home

61% win BOSwin TOR 39%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin3.5

Projected total227

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (15-9) host the Boston Celtics (14-9) on Sunday, December 7 at 3:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. Final score: Celtics 121 – Raptors 113. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Celtics a 61% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Raptors are 8-4 at home and the Celtics are 6-5 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Raptors and 8-2 for the Celtics (current streaks: Raptors L2, Celtics W4).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Celtics, but the Raptors have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Raptors 112 – 115 Celtics, a margin of about 3.5 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

The overall strength gap (+0.5 vs +6.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Raptors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors

Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +0.5 / BOS +6.3 per game

-5.8

Home-court advantageRaptors at home

+2.3

Expected marginfor Raptors

-3.5

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+

14%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Celtics win by 10+

30%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSTOR

116.8

Points scored / game

114.6

109.3

Points allowed / game

114.0

46.5 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

38.6 %

3-point %

30.4 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

34.5

76.0 %

Free throw %

79.0 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

45.8

27.8

Assists / game

27.3

9.0

Steals / game

14.3

3.8

Blocks / game

5.5

15.5

Turnovers / game

14.0

Top performers

Celtics

Jaylen BrownG · #730pts / game

Payton PritchardG · #116assists

Neemias QuetaC · #8811rebounds

Raptors

Brandon IngramF · #730pts / game

Scottie BarnesF · #48assists

Scottie BarnesF · #411rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

No games played yet.

TOR

No games played yet.

Head-to-head

BOS lead 4-0 this season.

Team comparison

BOS		TOR
14-9	Record	15-9
116.8	Points scored / game	114.6
109.3	Points allowed / game	114.0
+6.3	Adjusted margin / game	+0.5
W4	Current streak	L2
8-2	Last 10 games	6-4
6-5 road	Home / road record	8-4 home
61-21 (+9.1)	Last season	30-52 (-4.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

No injuries reported.

Injury report Raptors

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.