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Warriors vs Spurs prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 12

FinalFrost Bank Center · NBC Sports BA, NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN SW
37% win GSwin SA 63%
FavoriteSA
Projected margin4.3
Projected total227
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (8-2) host the Golden State Warriors (6-6) on Wednesday, November 12 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 125 – Spurs 120. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Spurs a 63% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Spurs are 5-0 at home and the Warriors are 1-6 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 8-2 for the Spurs and 4-6 for the Warriors (current streaks: Spurs W3, Warriors L1).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Spurs, but the Warriors have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Spurs 116 – 111 Warriors, a margin of about 4.3 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

  • The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs
Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +1.8 / GS +1.4 per game
+0.4
Home-court advantageSpurs at home
+2.3
Back-to-backWarriors played yesterday
+1.6
Expected marginfor Spurs
+4.3

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+
32%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Warriors win by 10+
13%

Stat comparison Current season

GSSA
114.3
Points scored / game
116.4
112.6
Points allowed / game
114.2
45.0 %
Field goal %
46.0 %
36.9 %
3-point %
34.6 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
38.2
82.2 %
Free throw %
78.3 %
43.8
Rebounds / game
45.0
25.6
Assists / game
28.2
9.6
Steals / game
9.8
3.8
Blocks / game
6.6
16.8
Turnovers / game
12.8

Top performers

Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3046pts / game
Jimmy Butler IIIF · #108assists
Jimmy Butler IIIF · #106rebounds
Spurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #131pts / game
Victor WembanyamaF · #110assists
Victor WembanyamaF · #115rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
GS
No games played yet.
SA
No games played yet.

Team comparison

GSSA
6-6Record8-2
114.3Points scored / game116.4
112.6Points allowed / game114.2
+1.4Adjusted margin / game+1.8
L1Current streakW3
4-6Last 10 games8-2
1-6 roadHome / road record5-0 home
48-34 (+3.3)Last season34-48 (-2.8)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

No injuries reported.

San Antonio Spurs Injury report Spurs

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.