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Thunder vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 5

FinalModa Center · KUNP 16, BlazerVision, FanDuel SN OK, NBA League Pass
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
8-1 · away
Final score
119-121
Projected: 118-110
Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers
5-3 · home
74% win OKCwin POR 26%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin7.9
Projected total228
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (4-3) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (8-0) on Wednesday, November 5 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 119 – Trail Blazers 121. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 74% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Trail Blazers are 2-2 at home and the Thunder are 4-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-3 for the Trail Blazers and 8-0 for the Thunder (current streaks: Trail Blazers L1, Thunder W8).

The analysis Model

On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Trail Blazers 110 – 118 Thunder, a margin of about 7.9 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

  • The overall strength gap (-0.7 vs +11.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Thunder's offense (121.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR -0.7 / OKC +11.1 per game
-11.8
Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home
+2.3
Back-to-backThunder played yesterday
+1.6
Expected marginfor Trail Blazers
-7.9

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+
8%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
26%
Thunder win by 10+
43%

Stat comparison Current season

OKCPOR
121.3
Points scored / game
114.4
108.3
Points allowed / game
115.2
44.0 %
Field goal %
51.1 %
30.9 %
3-point %
38.9 %
32.4
3-pointers attempted / game
43.7
86.4 %
Free throw %
70.8 %
46.0
Rebounds / game
46.3
22.0
Assists / game
30.7
8.4
Steals / game
8.3
6.8
Blocks / game
2.7
13.6
Turnovers / game
13.3

Top performers

Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #235pts / game
Cason WallaceG · #225assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #5511rebounds
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #826pts / game
Deni AvdijaF · #89assists
Deni AvdijaF · #810rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
OKC
No games played yet.
POR
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

OKC lead 3-1 this season.

Nov 5OKC119 - 121PORNov 23POR95 - 122OKCNov 30OKC123 - 115PORDec 31POR95 - 124OKC

Team comparison

OKCPOR
8-0Record4-3
121.3Points scored / game114.4
108.3Points allowed / game115.2
+11.1Adjusted margin / game-0.7
W8Current streakL1
8-0Last 10 games4-3
4-0 roadHome / road record2-2 home
68-14 (+12.9)Last season36-46 (-3.0)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

No injuries reported.

Portland Trail Blazers Injury report Trail Blazers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.