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76ers vs Wizards prediction NBA · Tuesday, October 28

FinalCapital One Arena · MNMT, NBC Sports Phil, NBA League Pass

Philadelphia 76ers

4-0 · away

Final score

139-134

Projected: 116-113

Washington Wizards

1-3 · home

59% win PHIwin WSH 41%

FavoritePHI

Projected margin2.9

Projected total229

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (1-2) host the Philadelphia 76ers (3-0) on Tuesday, October 28 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. Final score: 76ers 139 – Wizards 134. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the 76ers a 59% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Wizards are 0-1 at home and the 76ers are 1-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Wizards and 3-0 for the 76ers (current streaks: Wizards L1, 76ers W3).

The analysis Model

The 76ers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Wizards 113 – 116 76ers, a margin of about 2.9 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs -3.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The 76ers' offense (112.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -10.1 / PHI -3.3 per game

-6.8

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

Back-to-back76ers played yesterday

+1.6

Expected marginfor Wizards

-2.9

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

15%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

76ers win by 10+

29%

Stat comparison Current season

PHIWSH

112.9

Points scored / game

109.7

116.7

Points allowed / game

121.6

42.8 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

32.6 %

3-point %

28.5 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

77.5 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

40.0

24.6

Assists / game

25.8

9.8

Steals / game

7.4

5.6

Blocks / game

5.6

12.6

Turnovers / game

13.6

Top performers

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #039pts / game

Tyrese MaxeyG · #010assists

Kelly Oubre Jr.G · #1011rebounds

Wizards

Alex SarrC · #2031pts / game

Kyshawn GeorgeF · #187assists

Alex SarrC · #2011rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

No games played yet.

WSH

No games played yet.

Head-to-head

PHI lead 4-0 this season.

Team comparison

PHI		WSH
3-0	Record	1-2
112.9	Points scored / game	109.7
116.7	Points allowed / game	121.6
-3.3	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
W3	Current streak	L1
3-0	Last 10 games	1-2
1-0 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
24-58 (-6.2)	Last season	18-64 (-12.4)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report 76ers

No injuries reported.

Injury report Wizards

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.