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Spurs vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Friday, October 24

FinalSmoothie King Center · GCSEN, Pelicans.com, NBA League Pass, KENS 5
San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs
2-0 · away
Final score
120-116
Projected: 118-112
New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans Pelicans
0-2 · home
67% win SAwin NO 33%
FavoriteSA
Projected margin5.5
Projected total230
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New Orleans Pelicans (0-1) host the San Antonio Spurs (1-0) on Friday, October 24 at 8:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. Final score: Spurs 120 – Pelicans 116. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Spurs a 67% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Spurs are 1-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-1 for the Pelicans and 1-0 for the Spurs (current streaks: Pelicans L1, Spurs W1).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Spurs, but the Pelicans have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Pelicans 112 – 118 Spurs, a margin of about 5.5 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The overall strength gap (-7.8 vs -0.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Spurs' offense (114.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pelicans
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NO -7.8 / SA -0.0 per game
-7.8
Home-court advantagePelicans at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Pelicans
-5.5

Scenarios

Pelicans win by 10+
11%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Spurs win by 10+
36%

Stat comparison Current season

SANO
114.8
Points scored / game
110.8
114.8
Points allowed / game
119.9
46.0 %
Field goal %
46.5 %
34.6 %
3-point %
29.0 %
38.2
3-pointers attempted / game
31.0
78.3 %
Free throw %
83.6 %
45.0
Rebounds / game
44.3
28.2
Assists / game
23.5
9.8
Steals / game
12.3
6.6
Blocks / game
4.8
12.8
Turnovers / game
16.5

Top performers

Spurs
Victor WembanyamaF · #129pts / game
Stephon CastleG · #56assists
Luke KornetC · #712rebounds
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #127pts / game
Zion WilliamsonF · #17assists
Zion WilliamsonF · #110rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
SA
No games played yet.
NO
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

SA lead 3-1 this season.

Oct 24SA120 - 116NONov 8NO119 - 126SADec 8SA135 - 132NOJan 25NO104 - 95SA

Team comparison

SANO
1-0Record0-1
114.8Points scored / game110.8
114.8Points allowed / game119.9
-0.0Adjusted margin / game-7.8
W1Current streakL1
1-0Last 10 games0-1
1-0 roadHome / road record0-0 home
34-48 (-2.8)Last season21-61 (-9.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

San Antonio Spurs Injury report Spurs

No injuries reported.

New Orleans Pelicans Injury report Pelicans

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.