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Hawks vs Wizards prediction NBA · Tuesday, November 25

FinalCapital One Arena · MNMT, FanDuel SN SE, NBA League Pass
82% win ATLwin WSH 18%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin11.2
Projected total235
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (1-15) host the Atlanta Hawks (11-7) on Tuesday, November 25 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. Final score: Hawks 113 – Wizards 132. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Hawks a 82% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Wizards are 0-6 at home and the Hawks are 8-3 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 0-10 for the Wizards and 7-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Wizards L14, Hawks W2).

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Wizards 112 – 123 Hawks, a margin of about 11.2 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The overall strength gap (-12.4 vs +1.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (117.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards
Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -12.4 / ATL +1.1 per game
-13.5
Home-court advantageWizards at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Wizards
-11.2

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+
4%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
21%
Hawks win by 10+
54%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLWSH
117.7
Points scored / game
110.8
116.4
Points allowed / game
125.4
46.9 %
Field goal %
48.0 %
34.8 %
3-point %
28.5 %
41.4
3-pointers attempted / game
31.6
72.8 %
Free throw %
83.1 %
41.4
Rebounds / game
40.0
32.2
Assists / game
25.8
10.2
Steals / game
7.4
3.6
Blocks / game
5.6
14.0
Turnovers / game
13.6

Top performers

Hawks
Kristaps PorzingisC · #722pts / game
Dyson DanielsG · #57assists
Dyson DanielsG · #59rebounds
Wizards
CJ McCollumG · #346pts / game
Khris MiddletonF · #2212assists
Alex SarrC · #2011rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
ATL
No games played yet.
WSH
No games played yet.

Team comparison

ATLWSH
11-7Record1-15
117.7Points scored / game110.8
116.4Points allowed / game125.4
+1.1Adjusted margin / game-12.4
W2Current streakL14
7-3Last 10 games0-10
8-3 roadHome / road record0-6 home
40-42 (-1.1)Last season18-64 (-12.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

No injuries reported.

Washington Wizards Injury report Wizards

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.