Nuggets vs Warriors prediction NBA · Thursday, October 23
At a glance
The Golden State Warriors (1-0) host the Denver Nuggets on Thursday, October 23 at 10:17 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. Final score: Nuggets 131 – Warriors 137. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Warriors a 57% chance to win: prediction correct. Since the start of the season: 1-0 for the Warriors (current streaks: Warriors W1).
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Warriors 117 – 114 Nuggets, a margin of about 2.2 points in favor of the Warriors and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (120.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Warriors' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DENGS
Top performers
Nuggets
Aaron GordonF · #3250pts / game
Jamal MurrayG · #2710assists
Nikola JokicC · #1513reboundsWarriors
Stephen CurryG · #3042pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #238assistsDraymond GreenF · #238reboundsRecent form
DENGSHead-to-head
Tied 2-2 this season.
DEN
Team comparison
| DEN | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | Record | 1-0 |
| 120.8 | Points scored / game | 114.2 |
| 116.9 | Points allowed / game | 110.4 |
| +3.3 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.2 |
| – | Current streak | W1 |
| – | Last 10 games | 1-0 |
| – | Home / road record | 0-0 home |
| 50-32 (+3.9) | Last season | 48-34 (+3.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Nuggets
Injury report Warriors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.