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Pistons vs Wizards prediction NBA · Sunday, April 11

Sun, Apr 11 · 6:00 PM ETCapital One Arena
Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons
4-1 · away
Projected score
121-107
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards
2-3 · home
86% win DETwin WSH 14%
FavoriteDET
Projected margin13.7
Projected total228
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Sunday, April 11 at 6:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 86% chance to win and projects a 121-107 score (Pistons – Wizards), about 228 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Wizards L2, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 18% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Pistons dominate this matchup. The model projects Wizards 107 – 121 Pistons, a margin of about 13.7 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

  • The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards
Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / DET +6.5 per game
-14.2
Home-court advantageWizards at home
+2.3
InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable
-1.8
Expected marginfor Wizards
-13.7

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+
3%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
18%
Pistons win by 10+
62%

Stat comparison Current season

DETWSH
115.4
Points scored / game
113.1
107.8
Points allowed / game
122.2
45.9 %
Field goal %
48.0 %
37.9 %
3-point %
28.5 %
36.4
3-pointers attempted / game
31.6
74.4 %
Free throw %
83.1 %
46.8
Rebounds / game
40.0
27.0
Assists / game
25.8
8.0
Steals / game
7.4
7.2
Blocks / game
5.6
15.6
Turnovers / game
13.6

Players to watch

Pistons
Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game
Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists
Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds
Wizards
Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game
Trae YoungG · #310.4assists
Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
DET
WBOS121-113WMIA128-111WPHI106-93LNY111-97WCHA97-89
WSH
WMIL128-116LTOR112-102WCHI124-120LCHA110-103LCLE121-111

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 9WSHupcomingDETNov 12DETupcomingWSHApr 11DETthis gameWSH

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
DET 86% · WSH 14%
ESPN BPI
DET 69% · WSH 32%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DETWSH
4-1Record2-3
115.4Points scored / game113.1
107.8Points allowed / game122.2
+6.5Adjusted margin / game-7.7
W1Current streakL2
4-1Last 10 games2-3
2-1 roadHome / road record1-1 home
60-22 (+8.2)Last season17-65 (-12.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Detroit Pistons Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut
Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Washington Wizards Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut
Tristan Vukcevic FOut
Jamir Watkins GOut
Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.