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Wizards vs Pistons prediction NBA · Monday, November 9

Mon, Nov 9 · 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · NBCSN

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

105-121

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

9% win WSHwin DET 91%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin16.7

Projected total226

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Monday, November 9 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 91% chance to win and projects a 105-121 score (Wizards – Pistons), about 226 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Pistons W1, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 13% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pistons played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Pistons start with a clear edge. The model projects Pistons 121 – 105 Wizards, a margin of about 16.7 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+6.5 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / WSH -7.7 per game

+14.2

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

Back-to-backPistons played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Pistons

+16.7

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

70%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

13%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHDET

113.1

Points scored / game

115.4

122.2

Points allowed / game

107.8

48.0 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

28.5 %

3-point %

37.9 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

83.1 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

46.8

25.8

Assists / game

27.0

7.4

Steals / game

8.0

5.6

Blocks / game

7.2

13.6

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 9% · DET 91%

ESPN BPI

WSH 26% · DET 74%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		DET
2-3	Record	4-1
113.1	Points scored / game	115.4
122.2	Points allowed / game	107.8
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
L2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	4-1
1-2 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.