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Pistons vs Wizards prediction NBA · Thursday, November 12

Thu, Nov 12 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · MNMT

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

121-105

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

89% win DETwin WSH 11%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin15.3

Projected total226

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Thursday, November 12 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 89% chance to win and projects a 121-105 score (Pistons – Wizards), about 226 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: Wizards L2, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 15% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Wizards played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Pistons dominate this matchup. The model projects Wizards 105 – 121 Pistons, a margin of about 15.3 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / DET +6.5 per game

-14.2

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWizards played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Wizards

-15.3

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

15%

Pistons win by 10+

67%

Stat comparison Current season

DETWSH

115.4

Points scored / game

113.1

107.8

Points allowed / game

122.2

45.9 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

37.9 %

3-point %

28.5 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

74.4 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

40.0

27.0

Assists / game

25.8

8.0

Steals / game

7.4

7.2

Blocks / game

5.6

15.6

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 89% · WSH 11%

ESPN BPI

DET 72% · WSH 28%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DET		WSH
4-1	Record	2-3
115.4	Points scored / game	113.1
107.8	Points allowed / game	122.2
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
W1	Current streak	L2
4-1	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.