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Mavericks vs Kings prediction NBA · Friday, April 9

Fri, Apr 9 · 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

117-112

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

66% win DALwin SAC 34%

FavoriteDAL

Projected margin5.2

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Friday, April 9 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 66% chance to win and projects a 117-112 score (Mavericks – Kings), about 229 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Kings L4, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings) and Keegan Murray (Kings)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Mavericks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Kings 112 – 117 Mavericks, a margin of about 5.2 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Mavericks' offense (114.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Mavericks' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / DAL -2.8 per game

-7.3

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · DAL: 3 out, 2 questionable

-0.2

Expected marginfor Kings

-5.2

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Mavericks win by 10+

35%

Stat comparison Current season

DALSAC

114.1

Points scored / game

110.2

117.4

Points allowed / game

122.1

49.0 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

34.6 %

3-point %

30.0 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

76.7 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

41.5

27.6

Assists / game

22.8

9.0

Steals / game

6.8

7.4

Blocks / game

2.5

15.6

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 66% · SAC 34%

ESPN BPI

DAL 73% · SAC 27%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		SAC
3-2	Record	0-4
114.1	Points scored / game	110.2
117.4	Points allowed / game	122.1
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
W2	Current streak	L4
3-2	Last 10 games	0-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Sergio de Larrea FDay-To-Day

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.