Mavericks vs Kings prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 23
At a glance
The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Wednesday, December 23 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 60% chance to win and projects a 115-112 score (Mavericks – Kings), about 227 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Kings L4, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Mavericks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Sergio de Larrea (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Dylan Cardwell (Kings) and Maxime Raynaud (Kings)…. Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Mavericks, but the Kings have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Kings 112 – 115 Mavericks, a margin of about 3.1 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Mavericks' offense (114.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Mavericks' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.4 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DALSAC
Players to watch
Mavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / gameCooper FlaggF · #326.8assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8reboundsKings
Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game
Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assistsDomantas SabonisF · #1116.5reboundsRecent form
DAL
128-110W
121-105L
122-106W
113-109W
120-96SAC126-97L
121-96L
128-120L
123-112L130-103Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
SAC
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| DAL | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 0-4 |
| 114.1 | Points scored / game | 110.2 |
| 117.4 | Points allowed / game | 122.1 |
| -2.8 | Adjusted margin / game | -10.1 |
| W2 | Current streak | L4 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 26-56 (-5.5) | Last season | 22-60 (-10.0) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Mavericks
Injury report Kings
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.