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Kings vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Friday, April 2

Fri, Apr 2 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

110-119

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

22% win SACwin DAL 78%

FavoriteDAL

Projected margin9.8

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Friday, April 2 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Mavericks a 78% chance to win and projects a 110-119 score (Kings – Mavericks), about 229 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks) and Santi Aldama (Mavericks)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Mavericks dominate this matchup. The model projects Mavericks 119 – 110 Kings, a margin of about 9.8 points in favor of the Mavericks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 1 other). The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Mavericks' offense (114.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Mavericks' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.4 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / SAC -10.1 per game

+7.3

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 3 out, 2 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+0.2

Expected marginfor Mavericks

+9.8

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

49%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

23%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACDAL

110.2

Points scored / game

114.1

122.1

Points allowed / game

117.4

44.5 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

30.0 %

3-point %

34.6 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

73.1 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

44.2

22.8

Assists / game

27.6

6.8

Steals / game

9.0

2.5

Blocks / game

7.4

14.3

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 22% · DAL 78%

ESPN BPI

SAC 19% · DAL 81%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		DAL
0-4	Record	3-2
110.2	Points scored / game	114.1
122.1	Points allowed / game	117.4
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
L4	Current streak	W2
0-4	Last 10 games	3-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Sergio de Larrea FDay-To-Day

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.