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Trail Blazers vs Rockets prediction NBA · Friday, April 9

Fri, Apr 9 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · KUNP 16, BlazerVision

Portland Trail Blazers

3-0 · away

Projected score

111-117

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

34% win PORwin HOU 66%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin5.1

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) on Friday, April 9 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 66% chance to win and projects a 111-117 score (Trail Blazers – Rockets), about 228 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Trail Blazers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 3-0 for the Trail Blazers (current streaks: Rockets W5, Trail Blazers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers), Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Rockets, but the Trail Blazers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Rockets 117 – 111 Trail Blazers, a margin of about 5.1 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / POR +3.0 per game

+3.7

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · POR: 2 out, 1 questionable

-0.9

Expected marginfor Rockets

+5.1

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

35%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Trail Blazers win by 10+

11%

Stat comparison Current season

PORHOU

118.2

Points scored / game

117.5

114.7

Points allowed / game

109.7

51.1 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

38.9 %

3-point %

40.4 %

43.7

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

70.8 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

46.3

Rebounds / game

44.8

30.7

Assists / game

28.2

8.3

Steals / game

10.2

2.7

Blocks / game

6.0

13.3

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Trail Blazers

Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game

Ja MorantG · #16.3assists

Donovan ClinganC · #239.3rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

POR

110-98L

128-118W

124-83W

128-120W

136-129

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

POR 34% · HOU 66%

ESPN BPI

POR 38% · HOU 63%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

POR		HOU
3-0	Record	5-0
118.2	Points scored / game	117.5
114.7	Points allowed / game	109.7
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
W3	Current streak	W5
3-0	Last 10 games	5-0
2-0 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
42-40 (-0.3)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Trail Blazers

Chris Youngblood GOut

Shaedon Sharpe GOut

Robert Williams III CDay-To-Day

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.