Rockets vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 31
At a glance
The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Wednesday, March 31 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 53% chance to win and projects a 114-113 score (Rockets – Trail Blazers), about 226 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Trail Blazers and the Rockets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Robert Williams III (Trail Blazers), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: low.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Trail Blazers 113 – 114 Rockets, a margin of about 1.1 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers and the Rockets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Trail Blazers will be without Robert Williams III or Chris Youngblood (and 1 other). The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
HOUPOR
Players to watch
Rockets
Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / gameAlperen SengunC · #287.0assistsAlperen SengunC · #289.0reboundsTrail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsRecent form
HOU
128-110W
114-110W
121-114W120-110W
132-100POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129Head-to-head
3 meetings scheduled this season.
HOU
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| HOU | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | Record | 3-0 |
| 117.5 | Points scored / game | 118.2 |
| 109.7 | Points allowed / game | 114.7 |
| +6.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| W5 | Current streak | W3 |
| 5-0 | Last 10 games | 3-0 |
| 3-0 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 52-30 (+5.2) | Last season | 42-40 (-0.3) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Rockets
Injury report Trail Blazers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.