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Rockets vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 30

Tue, Mar 30 · 11:00 PM ETModa Center · NBC, KUNP 16, BlazerVision

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

115-114

Portland Trail Blazers

3-0 · home

52% win HOUwin POR 48%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin0.5

Projected total228

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Tuesday, March 30 at 11:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 52% chance to win and projects a 115-114 score (Rockets – Trail Blazers), about 228 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Trail Blazers 114 – 115 Rockets, a margin of about 0.5 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Trail Blazers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR +3.0 / HOU +6.7 per game

-3.7

Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPOR: 2 out, 1 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

+0.9

Expected marginfor Trail Blazers

-0.5

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+

20%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Rockets win by 10+

22%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUPOR

117.5

Points scored / game

118.2

109.7

Points allowed / game

114.7

51.7 %

Field goal %

51.1 %

40.4 %

3-point %

38.9 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

43.7

84.7 %

Free throw %

70.8 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

46.3

28.2

Assists / game

30.7

10.2

Steals / game

8.3

6.0

Blocks / game

2.7

15.8

Turnovers / game

13.3

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Trail Blazers

Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game

Ja MorantG · #16.3assists

Donovan ClinganC · #239.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

POR

110-98L

128-118W

124-83W

128-120W

136-129

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 52% · POR 48%

ESPN BPI

HOU 52% · POR 48%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		POR
5-0	Record	3-0
117.5	Points scored / game	118.2
109.7	Points allowed / game	114.7
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
W5	Current streak	W3
5-0	Last 10 games	3-0
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	42-40 (-0.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Trail Blazers

Chris Youngblood GOut

Shaedon Sharpe GOut

Robert Williams III CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.